sitmap.live

Corrections, verification and audit log

Every report on sitmap.live carries a verification state, and states change.

Unofficial · verify before acting

This event

Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh is now Corroborated. Changed 2 times.

  1. First rated Unverified
  2. Unverified to Single source
  3. Single source to Corroborated

Verification describes the available evidence, not certainty that an event occurred. A change of state is a new rating on newer reports or rules, not a retraction.

Marked disputed or debunked

Reports that sources contradict (disputed) stay on the map and in this list, for the record; a report judged false (debunked) is taken off the map and not repeated here, so its claim does not spread.

Reviewed by a person

A person reads events on the site with the reports behind them, and marks each one reviewed or sets it aside. A review says a person read it; the verification state is still set by the rules in the methodology.

Verification, last 30 days

11,817settled incidents
293still settling (under 12 h)
139disputed now
0debunked, still shown
5debunked and taken down
554withdrawn

Incidents by state, the last 12 hours left out while they settle: a state says how well sourced a report is, not how true.

Confirmed3483%
Corroborated1,24511%
Single source6,49355%
Unverified3,59230%
Disputed1391%
Debunked00%

The chart counts incidents still on the map. A debunked report is taken off the map when it is judged false, so its bar counts only one that is still shown, and reads 0 even when some were debunked. 5 reports were debunked and taken down in these 30 days; they are among the 554 withdrawn, and not named here. A report is debunked only when the review can point to what a claim itself says or shows (for example recycled footage, a retraction, or an impossible place or time); a doubt that cites no claim is shown as a warning, not a debunk, so debunks are rare.

Not counted: 1,868 leads (aggregator reposts that name no source).

Withdrawn events (merged, out of scope, removed on review or debunked) are not listed; when an event we posted on X is later disputed, debunked or withdrawn, the post gets a reply saying so.

Do early reports hold up?

Every event on the map starts as one report. These are all 8,688 events first reported since 2026-10-26 (leaving out the last 12 hours, too recent to judge), by where each stands now.

1,292corroborated or confirmed
21rated up with no new source
105disputed or debunked
403withdrawn
4,806single source
2,061unverified

1,292 (15%) were corroborated by an independent source or confirmed, a median of 2 hours after the first report. 21 (under 1%) reached corroborated or confirmed only when the same reports were rated again (changed rules or ratings, or a new review), with no new source: they are not counted as having held up. 105 (1%) were contradicted: marked disputed or debunked. 403 (5%) were withdrawn as out of scope or on review. 4,806 (55%) rest on one credible source, and 2,061 (24%) on no credible source: anonymous or partisan channels only, however many. Neither group has been confirmed or contradicted, which does not make them wrong.

Not counted: 1,288 leads, reposts by aggregator channels that name no source.

Audit log

Each change of state, newest first, in UTC, with why it changed; withdrawn events are not named, and recording began 2026-10-26 19:13 UTC.

Since 2026-10-26: 1,769 moves up to corroborated or confirmed on new reports or evidence; besides, 109 reclassified by changes to the rules, ratings or settings (changes to the rules); 35 by the automated review or on review; 13 re-ratings of the same reports whose cause was not recorded. 313 moves down a level.

  1. Military source says retreating forces lost positions and fled toward AdenSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  2. Saudi air strike reportedly hits a warehouse in Hamdan District, SanaaSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  3. Popular Mobilisation Forces say 44th Brigade repelled attack on position in Hadar, NinevehSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  4. Houthis say they fired six ballistic missiles at gatherings at Qa'wa camp in LahjUnverified to Single sourcenew report
  5. Two explosions reported west of Aden; Houthi ballistic missiles reportedly target Bureiqa districtSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  6. Southern Armed Forces say they are redeploying from Bab al-Mandab to defend AdenSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  7. Southern Armed Forces say they redeploy from Dhubab airport and Bab al-Mandab toward AdenDisputed to Corroboratednew report
  8. Israeli artillery reportedly targets outskirts of Al-Qusayr in Jabal Amel, south LebanonSingle source to Corroboratednew report
  9. Jordanian army says it arrested man who entered its waters from IsraelConfirmed to Disputednew report
  10. USS Roosevelt reportedly to join two carriers in Middle East, citing US military officialSingle source to Corroboratednew report

Changes to the rules

When the rules change, stored events are rated again on the same reports: a reclassification, not new evidence, counted apart above.

  1. Party rule. A party's statement about its own strikes, its interceptions or the enemy's losses no longer confirms an event; a neutral body, an authority's own record or an admission against interest still does.0 up, 61 down
  2. Strong-origin corroboration. An established or stronger origin plus any second independent one corroborates (before, the weights had to add up to 1.2); the stored weak events with two or more origins were rated again.106 up, 0 down

Air-traffic signals withdrawn or lowered

Drops in air traffic are detected by machine from ADS-B counts; one that rests on poor receiver coverage, or claims more than its evidence allows, is withdrawn or lowered.

  1. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-15 00:00 UTCConfidence medium to lowNot judged since 01:31 UTC: too few aircraft are expected in this hour to tell whether traffic came back
  2. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-15 00:00 UTCConfidence medium to lowThe usual hour here is too thin (median 17, lowest 3 aircraft entering) for more than low confidence
  3. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-13 15:28 UTCConfidence medium to lowThe usual hour here is too thin (median 21, lowest 3 aircraft entering) for more than low confidence
  4. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-13 15:28 UTCConfidence medium to lowNot judged since 01:38 UTC: too few aircraft are expected in this hour to tell whether traffic came back
  5. Kuwait airspace, drop detected 2026-11-08 05:52 UTCConfidence high to mediumThe usual hour here holds too few aircraft (median 19, lowest 17) for high confidence
  6. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-06 22:35 UTCConfidence medium to lowThe usual hour here is too thin (median 16, lowest 4 aircraft entering) for more than low confidence
  7. Israel airspace, drop detected 2026-11-06 20:05 UTCConfidence medium to lowThe usual hour here is too thin (median 17, lowest 3 aircraft entering) for more than low confidence
  8. Kuwait airspace, drop detected 2026-11-02 22:35 UTCConfidence high to mediumThe usual hour here holds too few aircraft (median 19, lowest 14) for high confidence
  9. Kuwait airspace, drop detected 2026-11-02 22:35 UTCConfidence high to mediumThe usual hour here holds too few aircraft (median 29, lowest 8) for high confidence
  10. Kuwait airspace, drop detected 2026-10-31 20:24 UTCConfidence medium to lowThe usual hour here is too thin (median 12, lowest 4 aircraft entering) for more than low confidence
  11. Qatar airspace, drop detected 2026-10-30 09:57 UTCConfidence high to mediumNo airspace closure notice in force covers it, and a fall in the aircraft counted entering a FIR is never high confidence alone
  12. Iraq airspace, drop detected 2026-10-30 12:36 UTCWithdrawnOur receivers' coverage of the Baghdad FIR (ORBB) is thin: 69% of the polls over the 7 days before saw no aircraft inside it. A fall in the aircraft counted there is not evidence of a closure

Page built 2026-11-15 18:32 UTC · Last updated 2026-11-15 18:32 UTC · Read at 2026-11-15 18:32 UTC · served from a copy 2 min old