How tense is the Middle East right now?

The Middle East tension index is 67 out of 100 (high) on 5 November 2026, up from 60 a week earlier. Updated 20:54 UTC from reports up to 20:42 UTC. Not a forecast.

Rests on 375 reports from the last 24 hours, 64 corroborated or confirmed; mostly official statements.

High

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Middle East: the last 30 days

Middle East tension index by day, 14 Oct to 5 Nov: 55 at the start and 67 at the end, highest 71 on 2 Nov, lowest 55 on 14 Oct. The same values are in the table below.

Daily values (table)

Middle East tension index by day, newest first
Day (UTC)	Day end	Day high	Level
5 Nov (so far)	67	68	high
4 Nov	67	70	high
3 Nov	70	70	high
2 Nov	71	71	high
1 Nov	69	69	high
31 Oct	64	64	high
30 Oct	64	64	high
29 Oct	60	60	high
28 Oct	59	61	high
27 Oct	61	62	high
26 Oct	62	62	high
25 Oct	61	61	high
24 Oct	60	62	high
23 Oct	62	63	high
22 Oct	60	61	high
21 Oct	59	60	high
20 Oct	59	60	high
19 Oct	59	60	high
18 Oct	58	60	high
17 Oct	60	60	high
16 Oct	60	60	high
15 Oct	57	58	high
14 Oct	55	55	high
13 Oct	no reading
12 Oct	no reading
11 Oct	no reading
10 Oct	no reading
9 Oct	no reading
8 Oct	no reading
7 Oct	no reading

By area

Every area, day by day (table)

Tension index by area and day, newest first
Day (UTC)	Region	Gaza	Yemen	Lebanon	Saudi Arabia	West Bank	Iran	Strait of Hormuz	Syria	Israel	Gulf states	Iraq	Jordan	Egypt	Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
5 Nov	67	73	70	69	58	54	46	35	34	28	22	21	14	6	5
4 Nov	67	69	72	70	53	56	53	38	23	23	22	26	3	1	2
3 Nov	70	72	75	69	56	60	58	43	23	24	28	13	6	0	5
2 Nov	71	78	73	68	56	58	58	46	31	17	26	11	11	0	9
1 Nov	69	76	73	67	52	59	36	48	35	23	27	12	13	1	15
31 Oct	64	71	59	63	53	57	37	42	16	22	23	8	16	0	11
30 Oct	64	70	63	59	58	55	38	43	21	25	32	5	5	0	16
29 Oct	60	64	60	38	60	55	41	37	29	20	23	8	10	0	15
28 Oct	59	66	61	42	62	43	29	26	33	21	9	13	16	1	24
27 Oct	61	57	58	37	69	49	35	33	39	26	13	20	24	2	27
26 Oct	62	60	65	39	65	43	34	29	49	16	16	29	24	2	21
25 Oct	61	65	64	42	65	40	42	31	17	13	15	29	22	0	6
24 Oct	60	52	65	43	68	44	32	22	23	16	22	25	25	1	10
23 Oct	62	51	63	47	71	50	30	26	29	17	24	14	35	1	12
22 Oct	60	56	62	43	68	37	33	28	25	20	29	20	18	2	14
21 Oct	59	55	65	48	60	33	38	31	33	9	25	25	0	3	3
20 Oct	59	59	65	46	56	36	30	29	19	12	27	19	0	5	6
19 Oct	59	58	64	45	60	40	35	36	18	13	12	13	1	0	10
18 Oct	58	57	63	40	60	38	33	38	17	12	18	19	0	1	11
17 Oct	60	59	65	45	61	41	28	42	19	15	11	24	1	1	13
16 Oct	60	60	61	51	65	36	30	43	17	19	18	3	1	0	15
15 Oct	57	48	57	49	64	29	37	47	18	24	20	3	2	1	8
14 Oct	55	40	52	49	64	24	33	51	1	21	13	5	3	0	12
13 Oct
12 Oct
11 Oct
10 Oct
9 Oct
8 Oct
7 Oct

The reports behind each area, day by day, are on the areas page.

What drove the latest change

Drone strike hits Al-Shuhada Square in Shati camp, Gaza City; one or three reportedly killed
ConfirmedGaza2026-11-05 15:45 UTCOn the map: Drone strike hits Al-Shuhada Square in Shati camp, Gaza City; one or three reportedly killed
Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar condemn attempted Houthi missile attack on Madinah
CorroboratedSaudi Arabia2026-11-05 19:08 UTCOn the map: Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar condemn attempted Houthi missile attack on Madinah
Israeli strike reportedly wounds several in Deir el-Balah area, Gaza
CorroboratedGaza2026-11-05 11:08 UTCOn the map: Israeli strike reportedly wounds several in Deir el-Balah area, Gaza
Israeli strike reportedly kills one in al-Zawayda, central Gaza
ConfirmedGaza2026-11-05 11:05 UTCOn the map: Israeli strike reportedly kills one in al-Zawayda, central Gaza
Saudi strike reportedly hits farm in al-Talh, Saada, Yemen
CorroboratedYemen2026-11-05 07:12 UTCOn the map: Saudi strike reportedly hits farm in al-Talh, Saada, Yemen

Titles are written by AI from public reports.

How the index is made

How it is calculated

It counts the strikes, attacks, shelling and other hostile incidents the site has stored. A report counts for more when it is a heavier kind of incident, better verified or reports more dead and injured, and for less as it ages, until it drops out after a week. The total goes on a fixed scale from 0 to 100 that rises more slowly the busier it gets, read as low (0 to 24), elevated (25 to 49), high (50 to 74) or severe (75 to 100). The region adds up all the areas and the reports that name no place, instead of averaging them.

Exact weights

Every stored event that is not hidden gets a weight: its type (a missile attack 4, an airstrike 3, shelling 2, a siren 1, a statement 0.3, talks 0) times how well it is established (confirmed 1, corroborated 0.8, one source 0.4, disputed 0.3, unverified 0.15) times its toll (more for reported dead and injured) times 1.5 when the attack comes from another state's forces. A weight halves every 24 hours and is dropped after 7 days.

An area's total goes on a log curve: 0 for nothing, every doubling adds about 14 points, 100 at about 400 (r0 3, r1 400). The region adds up all 14 areas and the reports that name no place, on a curve six times as wide (r0 18, r1 2400). A report stored twice counts once, a repeat of a title in the same area counts half as much as the one before, and talks and statements never lower the number. It is worked out again from the stored events every few minutes, so a late report changes only the days around it. The newest hours are the least complete, as reports are still being verified: a day's reading usually rises a few points the day after. No reading before 13 October 2026, when complete reports began: the series starts on 14 October 2026. Method version 1.0; the data is at /api/tension.json.

What it is not

Not a forecast. It says how much hostile activity was reported, not what will happen.
Not an official measure. No government or agency produces or endorses it.
Driven by what the site's sources report. A place with few sources or little coverage reads lower than the ground may deserve, and a quiet day can mean quiet or missing coverage. Reports that name no place count for the region and for no area; reports that name a place outside the 14 areas count for nothing.
Not a casualty count. A big toll weighs more within one event, but the index is not a figure of dead or injured.

Questions

How tense is the Middle East right now?

The Middle East tension index is 67 out of 100 (high) on 5 November 2026, up from 60 a week earlier. Updated 20:54 UTC from reports up to 20:42 UTC.

What does the tension index measure?

How much hostile activity the site's sources are reporting: strikes, attacks, shelling, sirens and other incidents, weighted by type, by how well each report is established and by its toll, and faded over a few days. It is a reading of reporting, scaled 0 to 100.

Is the tension index a forecast?

Not a forecast and not an official measure: it counts what the site's sources report, so it follows what is reported and can lag or miss events.

How is the tension index calculated?

Each stored report counts by its kind, verification and toll, fades over a week, and the total goes on a fixed 0 to 100 scale, read as low, elevated, high or severe. The exact weights are under "How it is calculated" on this page.

How often is it updated?

It is worked out again from the stored events every few minutes; the page says when. The newest hours can change as reports are verified.

Which parts of the Middle East are the most tense today?

By the index: Gaza (73), Yemen (70), Lebanon (69).

What is behind the latest reading?

The biggest recent contributions are reports such as "Drone strike hits Al-Shuhada Square in Shati camp, Gaza City; one or three reportedly killed" (Confirmed, 2026-11-05); the full list is on this page, each with its page and its place on the map.

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Page built 2026-11-05 20:54 UTC · data as of 20:42 UTC · sources last read 20:54 UTC