How is the tension index built, and what can it not tell you?
It adds up the reports the site holds for an area. Each counts for its type, for how well it is established and for its toll, and loses half its weight every 24 hours. The sum is put on a fixed scale from 0 to 100. Not a forecast and not an official measure: it counts what the site's sources report, so it follows what is reported and can lag or miss events.
Updated · Unofficial · verify before acting
What a report counts for
- Its type
A missile attack counts 4, an airstrike 3, shelling 2, a siren 1 and an official statement 0.3. Ceasefire talks count 0: they never offset hostilities.
- How well it is established
Confirmed counts in full, Corroborated 0.8, Single source 0.4, Disputed 0.3, Unverified 0.15 and Debunked nothing.
- Its toll
Reported deaths and injuries raise it on a log scale: ten reported killed multiply it by 1.83.
- Who attacked
An attack on an area by another state's actor counts 1.5 times. That applies to kinds that count 2 or more, so never to a statement.
- Its age
Half after 24 hours, a quarter after 48, nothing after 7 days.
Guards against noise
- Repeats
Of reports with the same title, in the same area and of the same type, the strongest counts in full, the next at half its weight and the third at a quarter.
- Statements
All the statements about one area together add at most 7 to its sum, which alone reads 25, the bottom of elevated. A flood of words cannot raise a reading far.
- Threats and tests
A threat one state's officials put against another counts 1 instead of 0.3, and a missile launch reported as a test counts 1.5 instead of 4. A fixed list of words decides which statements are threats, and it is sometimes wrong.
- Late stories
A report dated more than 72 hours before it was first reported counts from the report, so an old story told late does not rewrite old days.
The scale
An area's reading is 100 × ln(1 + R ÷ 3) ÷ ln(1 + 400 ÷ 3), where R is the faded sum, to at most 100. Every doubling of a large R adds about 14 points. The bands are low from 0, elevated from 25, high from 50, severe from 75. The Middle East number is not an average of the areas: it adds their sums, counting Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden twice, on a scale 7 times as wide.
A worked example
A quiet area, and one airstrike with no casualties reported.
- 1. One anonymous channel reports it
Unverified: 3 × 0.15 = 0.45. The area reads 3.
- 2. It is corroborated
3 × 0.8 = 2.4. The area reads 12.
- 3. It is confirmed
It counts 3. The area reads 14.
- 4. A day passes with nothing else reported
The strike weighs 1.5. The area reads 8.
- 5. The same strike with ten reported killed
New and confirmed it would count 5.5, and the area would read 21.
From 3 to 14, nothing new happened on the ground: the same strike became better sourced. That is why the newest hours read low and usually rise as reports are verified.
What it cannot tell you
- What will happen
It is not a forecast. It follows what is reported, so it can lag behind events or miss them.
- What was not reported
Where few sources reach, little is counted. Coverage is shown beside a reading as a separate measure and never changes it. When the newest report is more than 6 hours old the reading is flagged, because a low number may only mean silence.
- Whether a threat is real
Threats are counted as said, not as likely: the index does not say whether a threat will be carried out.
- How bad it is for people there
Weights reflect how far an escalation in an area could spread (state against state, oil and shipping), not how serious it is for the people there.
- How one kind of number compares with another
The Middle East number is on a wider scale than an area's, and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz counted together reads higher than either alone. Compare an area with an area.
- The first days
Days before the stored reports are complete have no reading at all, never zero.
Questions
Why did the reading change for a day that is over?
Every reading is worked out again from the reports stored now. A report that was verified, merged or set aside later changes the days it counted for.
Does a higher number mean war is more likely?
No. It means more hostile activity is being reported, or the same activity is better sourced.
Is the method versioned?
Yes. The data names the method's version, 1.4 now, and lists what each version changed.
Page built 2026-11-13 21:49 UTC · Last updated 2026-11-13 00:00 UTC