How tense is Gulf states right now?
Gulf states's tension index is 22 out of 100 (low) on 5 November 2026, up from 20 a week earlier. Not a forecast.
Rests on 9 reports from the last 24 hours, none corroborated or confirmed; mostly aircraft activity.
Gulf states: the last 30 days
Daily values (table)
| Day (UTC) | Day end | Day high | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov (so far) | 22 | 23 | low |
| 4 Nov | 22 | 28 | low |
| 3 Nov | 28 | 30 | elevated |
| 2 Nov | 26 | 28 | elevated |
| 1 Nov | 27 | 27 | elevated |
| 31 Oct | 23 | 31 | low |
| 30 Oct | 32 | 33 | elevated |
| 29 Oct | 23 | 23 | low |
| 28 Oct | 9 | 13 | low |
| 27 Oct | 13 | 19 | low |
| 26 Oct | 16 | 18 | low |
| 25 Oct | 15 | 21 | low |
| 24 Oct | 22 | 28 | low |
| 23 Oct | 24 | 30 | low |
| 22 Oct | 29 | 30 | elevated |
| 21 Oct | 25 | 31 | elevated |
| 20 Oct | 27 | 27 | elevated |
| 19 Oct | 12 | 18 | low |
| 18 Oct | 18 | 23 | low |
| 17 Oct | 11 | 18 | low |
| 16 Oct | 18 | 25 | low |
| 15 Oct | 20 | 21 | low |
| 14 Oct | 13 | 13 | low |
| 13 Oct | no reading | ||
| 12 Oct | no reading | ||
| 11 Oct | no reading | ||
| 10 Oct | no reading | ||
| 9 Oct | no reading | ||
| 8 Oct | no reading | ||
| 7 Oct | no reading |
Gulf states among the areas
Ranks 10 of 14 today. The whole region reads 67 (high). The whole region and every area.
What drove the latest change in Gulf states
- Tanker struck by two unidentified projectiles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, UKMTO says
- Reported Bahraini government military movements toward the Sakhir areaSingle sourceGulf statesOn the map: Reported Bahraini government military movements toward the Sakhir area
- Before-and-after videos said to show Iranian strikes on Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait
- Footage reportedly shows protest in Bahrain over upcoming trial of Shiite religious figures
- South Korea reportedly proposes extending Cheonghae patrols to waters near Duqm, Oman
Titles are written by AI from public reports.
How the index is made
How it is calculated
It counts the strikes, attacks, shelling and other hostile incidents the site has stored. A report counts for more when it is a heavier kind of incident, better verified or reports more dead and injured, and for less as it ages, until it drops out after a week. The total goes on a fixed scale from 0 to 100 that rises more slowly the busier it gets, read as low (0 to 24), elevated (25 to 49), high (50 to 74) or severe (75 to 100). The region adds up all the areas and the reports that name no place, instead of averaging them.
Exact weights
Every stored event that is not hidden gets a weight: its type (a missile attack 4, an airstrike 3, shelling 2, a siren 1, a statement 0.3, talks 0) times how well it is established (confirmed 1, corroborated 0.8, one source 0.4, disputed 0.3, unverified 0.15) times its toll (more for reported dead and injured) times 1.5 when the attack comes from another state's forces. A weight halves every 24 hours and is dropped after 7 days.
An area's total goes on a log curve: 0 for nothing, every doubling adds about 14 points, 100 at about 400 (r0 3, r1 400). The region adds up all 14 areas and the reports that name no place, on a curve six times as wide (r0 18, r1 2400). A report stored twice counts once, a repeat of a title in the same area counts half as much as the one before, and talks and statements never lower the number. It is worked out again from the stored events every few minutes, so a late report changes only the days around it. The newest hours are the least complete, as reports are still being verified: a day's reading usually rises a few points the day after. No reading before 13 October 2026, when complete reports began: the series starts on 14 October 2026. Method version 1.0; the data is at /api/tension.json.
What it is not
- Not a forecast. It says how much hostile activity was reported, not what will happen.
- Not an official measure. No government or agency produces or endorses it.
- Driven by what the site's sources report. A place with few sources or little coverage reads lower than the ground may deserve, and a quiet day can mean quiet or missing coverage. Reports that name no place count for the region and for no area; reports that name a place outside the 14 areas count for nothing.
- Not a casualty count. A big toll weighs more within one event, but the index is not a figure of dead or injured.
Questions
How tense is Gulf states right now?
Gulf states's tension index is 22 out of 100 (low) on 5 November 2026, up from 20 a week earlier. Updated 21:01 UTC from reports up to 20:55 UTC.
What does the tension index measure?
How much hostile activity the site's sources are reporting: strikes, attacks, shelling, sirens and other incidents, weighted by type, by how well each report is established and by its toll, and faded over a few days. It is a reading of reporting, scaled 0 to 100.
Is the tension index a forecast?
Not a forecast and not an official measure: it counts what the site's sources report, so it follows what is reported and can lag or miss events.
How is the tension index calculated?
Each stored report counts by its kind, verification and toll, fades over a week, and the total goes on a fixed 0 to 100 scale, read as low, elevated, high or severe. The exact weights are under "How it is calculated" on this page.
How often is it updated?
It is worked out again from the stored events every few minutes; the page says when. The newest hours can change as reports are verified.
How does Gulf states compare with the rest of the region?
Gulf states ranks 10 of 14 areas by the index today; the whole region reads 67 out of 100.
What is behind the reading in Gulf states?
The biggest recent contributions are reports such as "Tanker struck by two unidentified projectiles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, UKMTO says" (Single source, 2026-11-05); the full list is on this page, each with its page and its place on the map.